The Northern Territory’s economy is only expected to grow by 0.8 per cent this year – the weakest growth of the jurisdictions – and by 3.1 per cent next financial year, according to new figures from Deloitte Access Economics.

The new forecast comes as CommSec’s latest State of the State report has ranked the NT’s economy the worst in the country, with the NT’s population growing at the slowest rate in Australia.

According to Deloitte, the economy is expected to expand by 3.9 per cent this year nationally, ranging from an estimated two per cent in Western Australia to 6.8 per cent in Victoria.

The Territory’s estimated modest economic growth of 3.1 per cent next year will be pushed up by expected private investment growth—as earlier project constructions transition to production—with private engineering and commercial investment’s production contributing 0.9 percentage points, and private equipment investment adding 0.2 ppt.

Private investment will be a key driver for the NT over the next five years to 2026-27. Deloitte estimates the Territory’s economy to rise at an average rate of 2.4 per cent annually, with the national economy forecasted to grow at an average rate of 2.3 per cent annually over the five years.

For this financial year, the Territory’s employment is expected to rise by 3.7 per cent, against 3.0 per cent nationally.

In the next five years to 2026-27, the Territory’s average employment growth is estimated at 2.2 per cent per year.

Employment growth forecast for other jurisdictions for the same period range from 0.6 per cent in Tasmania to a high of 1.9 per cent annually in the Australian Capital Territory. For the same period, national employment growth is estimated to average 1.6 per cent.

Meanwhile, CommSec’s State of the States report found the NT has the country’s lowest population growth at 0.34 per cent.

The NT also has the lowest retail spending levels, lowest equipment investment and lowest dwelling starts, although the construction sector showed good annual growth.

The Territory’s yearly unemployment rate is forecast to average 4.7 per cent in the next five years to 2026-27, higher than the 4.3 per cent projected national average, according to Deloitte.

For other jurisdictions, the annual unemployment rate for the next five years ranges from a high of 5.5 per cent in Tasmania to a low of 3.3 per cent in the ACT.

Darwin’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for this financial year is expected to rise by 7 per cent.

For the five years to 2026-27, CPI is forecasted to grow by an average of 3.7 per cent per year, at par with the estimated national figure for the period.

Deloitte expects the average CPI reverting back to the average annual 2 to 3 per cent levels—the range targeted by the Reserve Bank of Australia—in the 2024-25 financial year.