The Northern Territory – with Queensland and Western Australia – will be exposed to the most significant economic losses due to a rapidly changing climate, a new Deloitte Economics report has found.
Mining, tourism and trade industries in the Northern Territory would be hit hardest if average global temperatures continue on their current rising trajectories.
And by 2070, the NT would see a five per cent decline in employment and a 12 per cent decline in gross state product.
Researchers and economists from Deloitte have put the Australian economy under the microscope and forecasted a dire future for young people in particular if action on the climate crisis is not taken.
By 2070, the impact of climate change could curtail Australia’s economic growth to the tune of $3.4 trillion and result in 880,000 fewer jobs.
“Inaction or mis-action in recovery is an economic course that results in significant loss to Australia, with losses to industry, business, workers and communities at a level that disrupts the livelihoods of an entire generation,” according to the report.
Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory are projected to take the largest hits in the nation as a result of a changing climate.
The industries hit hardest by climate change. Picture: Deloitte Economics.
Geographically hot and heavily reliant on the industries most at risk – mining, tourism, manufacturing and services – these regions are slated to become “uncompetitive”.
“Their economies feel the brunt of warmer climates and the longer-term consequences of becoming uncompetitive against the states with comparatively cooler temperatures and industrial structures less dependent on the climate,” the report states.
Report author Pradeep Philip, who was a policy director for former prime minister Kevin Rudd, said unchecked climate change would shrink Australia’s economic growth three per cent every year and cost around 310,000 jobs annually.
“In an economic future where Australia and the rest of the world does not mitigate the worst effects of climate change, the world has an emissions pathway that produces global average warming of above 3°C by 2070,” he said.
“While this is a global average, the reality is that in parts of Australia it will be much hotter. We will, truly, be the sunburnt country.”
Dr Philip said there will be both a substantial increase in the temperature reached on the hottest days, and an increase in the frequency of hot days. Some parts of the Northern Territory are charted to become uninhabitable.
“No matter the recovery or transition pathway chosen, an emissions intensive structure will not support a strong economic growth trajectory in Australia; the risk of stranded assets, industries, communities and workers is intensified,” he said.
While the report highlights “no industry or worker in Australia will be untouched by the disruption caused from a changing climate and the global economy’s response”, it charts economic gains if warming can be kept below 1.5 degrees and Australia achieved net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
“A warming world and climate-induced damages will see many Australian environments become a casualty, with significant consequences for the tourism markets and regional economies that depend on them,” Dr Phillip’s report states.
“The natural attractions on offer – like the Great Barrier Reef, Uluru and Kakadu National Park – underpin the success of the industry, both in terms of domestic and international demand.”
By 2070, the Northern Territory could see 5000 jobs added if Australia transitioned to a low emissions economy by switching fuel sources and investing in renewable technologies.
“This warming world is no joke. It will affect our ability to work outside – building houses and infrastructure that we critically need,”Dr Philip said. “It affects our choices on where to live and holiday – as sea level rises and riverine flooding increase in intensity and impact.
“It affects our ability to play – hotter days means less outdoor playtime. We could even see the death of the Boxing Day Test and weekend club sport if things go on unchecked.
“Australia’s economy could be $680 billion larger in 2070 – adding over 250,000 jobs – by being a country that reaches net zero emissions, sooner rather than later, to limit global average warming to 1.5°C along with the rest of the world.
“The reality for Australia is that we stand to lose the most from unanswered climate change, but also stand to gain significantly from action.”
What a load of codswallop, gas or coal and you have a manufacturing industry . Wind and solar you are broke and China and India have a manufacturing industry. Never listen to an economist who has been qualified over five years unless he is filthy rich if he isn’t he is not good at his trade.