The Territory’s economy is predicted to grow at the slowest rate in Australia over five years, coupled with the highest consumer price index increase, but the NT will have a slightly lower unemployment rate than the national average, the Deloitte Access Economics’ June quarter report states.

The report forecasts the NT economy to grow by two per cent on average over the five years to 2025-26, with the national economy to grow at an average rate of 2.8 per year over the five years. The lowest estimated growth in another jurisdiction is South Australia with an annual rate of 2.3 per cent, while Victoria has the highest at 3.3 per cent.

The five years of the report includes the 2021-22 financial year.

Economic growth in the NT in the last financial year was said to have dropped by 0.2 per cent, while this financial year it is estimated to increase by 2.1 per cent, which is still 0.9 per cent less than the rest of the country.

It is also estimated to further contract by 0.7 per cent for the fiscal year 2023-24.

“Despite the projected growth in [NT] domestic demand, up by eight per cent, the weakening in economic activity is buttressed by increased international goods imports — shrinking by 6.2 percentage points — and weaker private housing investments, which slowed down by 0.4 points,” DAE said.

DAE said the Territory relies significantly on imported inputs for major engineering and construction projects, with private engineering and commercial investment increasing by three points, and private equipment investment, 0.3 points, contributing to the economy.

The Territory’s economic expansion over the next five years will be driven by several resource projects and private investments, the report said, with private engineering and commercial investments, increasing around 12.6 per cent per year; investments in private equipment expanding by an average rate of 3.6 per cent annually, and private housing investments decreasing by 2.8 per cent per year.

For this fiscal year, the Territory’s employment is estimated to go up by 0.9 per cent. While employment is forecast to grow over the next five years by an average of two per cent per annum. Nationally, employment is forecast to grow by an average of 1.9 per cent annually.

The NT unemployment rate is forecast average four per cent over the five-year period, which is slightly below the national average of 4.3 per cent.

Darwin’s consumer price index was estimated to have risen by 6.1 per cent last financial year. Over the five years to 2025-26, DAE estimates the NT’s CPI growth will average four per cent annually, which is above the national growth of 3.6 per cent. It is also one point higher than the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target range.

The Territory’s population, meanwhile, was estimated to have increased by 0.1 per cent in the last financial year. Over the next five years, DAE forecasts the Territory population to increase by an average of 1.2 per cent annually, slightly above the national average rate of 1.1 per cent.

The report comes with a caution when using data for the Territory, as it is often derived from small samples and can be “highly volatile”.