A report into the Fyles Government’s minimum alcohol floor price could not definitively determine its sole effectiveness on minimising alcohol-related harm in the NT, citing “incomplete or missing data” at times, but the government has nevertheless claimed it a huge success and vowed to keep the policy in place.

The evaluation report, conducted by Frontier Economics, stated that the only firm effect the minimum unit price (MUP) achieved was to decrease sales of cask wine, but said the evidence suggested that “drinkers had shifted to other products” including spirits.

“There is evidence of a reduction in alcohol related harms, but it is difficult to attribute this to the MUP,” the report stated in its “key findings” section.

The report further stated that “the interaction between the MUP and other alcohol related policies is unclear”.

Also in the “key findings” section, the report concluded that “COVID-19 had a more significant impact on many key outcomes … than the MUP”.

According to government records, Frontier Economics was paid $337,480 last August for the report.

The Labor Government set the controversial minimum alcohol floor price on October 1, 2018 at $1.30 per standard drink, which it said would reduce alcohol-related harm in the NT. Under the legislation, the MUP is to be reviewed every three years. It was not explained why the first review came out four years after the introduction of the MUP.

In a statement celebrating the MUP report’s findings, Chief Minister Natasha Fyles said the report showed alcohol-related harms reduced “across a range of key areas since 2018, with a 25.8 per cent decline in alcohol-related assaults”.

What the report actually found was that those reductions were “difficult to attribute” to the introduction of the MUP and that while alcohol-fuelled assaults were down in the rest of the Territory, there was no data to suggest that there were any reductions in the Greater Darwin region.

“This suggests the reduction in alcohol-related harms is likely to be related to policy interventions other than the MUP, including local licencing arrangements and PALIs [police auxiliary liquor inspectors],” the report stated.

Ms Fyles also played up the findings that the MUP did not have a negative effect on the liquor industry, tourism or the NT economy, which is what the report found.

“Overall, the effect on retailer revenues was small as increased margins compensated for decreased volumes …,” the report stated.

Ms Fyles claimed the minimum floor price was “effective” and that it would stay in place.

“The minimum unit price is just one component of our broad alcohol reforms, but this evaluation shows it does have a place here in the Territory,” she said.

“While we acknowledge there is still more work to do across the Territory, this evaluation is a good indication that we are on the right track.”

The Opposition CLP said the government was “cherry picking” the results of the report that had only looked at limited data during a limited time frame.

“The Fyles Labor government can pull the wool over our eyes with these deceptive reports but it’s not the reality of what Territorians are living and breathing every single day,” said CLP MLA Marie-Clare Boothby.

“Darwin and Palmerston is now littered with empty bottles of spirits and broken spirit bottles instead of the cans and empty casks. No one is falling for this glossy government report.

“Additionally, this report really shows that PALIs are working in Alice Springs, Tennant Creek and Katherine and we question why there are no PALIs in Greater Darwin.”

The report suggested that future research should look at a “number of key questions” and said it had “identified a range of issues where there is incomplete or missing data”.

Despite not being able to conclude that the MUP by itself had accomplished much, the report recommended keeping the minimum floor price in place because there was “some evidence” it had impacted consumption, but then went on to say that any increase to the floor price would “impact both harmful and moderate consumers”.

The report also recommended that the NT Government define what it means by “harmful consumption” and “moderate consumption” of alcohol, as well as ensure proper data collection be undertaken to “support robust policy analysis” while remaining consistent across different regions because the researchers found it difficult to determine the timing and effect of different alcohol policies.

Ms Fyles said the recommendations would be “considered by government”.

According to a recent Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission wastewater analysis, the Northern Territory had the highest estimated average capital city and regional consumption of alcohol in the country as of December 2021.