A Northern Territory Government-commissioned report has revealed that gas production from the Beetaloo Basin, and the expansion of the liquid natural gas production in Darwin, could lead to an up to 150 per cent increase in the Territory’s emissions, the ABC has reported.

The national broadcaster reported it had obtained a draft of NT Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios interim report prepared by Point Advisory, and which has been withheld from the public by the government for two years.

The ABC said the report found that the gas industry would be the most significant contributor to emissions increases in the Northern Territory up to 2050, with the document giving three baseline emissions scenarios for each sector.

Under a scenario with no new gas projects the NT’s emissions were projected to increase by 25 to 50 per cent due to the growing greenhouse gas output from Darwin’s two existing gas plants, because of higher CO2 levels of new offshore gas supplies from 2025 to 2035.

Under the next scenario, with a small expansion of Santos’s and Inpex’s Darwin LNG plants, and an additional supply of 365 petajoules annually from the Beetaloo Basin, emissions in the Territory could potentially double, reaching 100 per cent over their historical levels.

While they could increase by 150 per cent with a significant expansion of the Darwin LNG plants and with 680 PJ a year supplied from the Beetaloo Basin.

The ABC reported the Northern Territory currently produces about three per cent of Australia’s emissions, and said Environment Centre NT director Dr Kirsty Howey was sceptical about the gas industry’s ability to offset a 100 to 150 per cent increase in emissions.

“Net zero by 2050 is just a fantasy at the moment for the Northern Territory government. They need to tell people in the Territory and nationally that it isn’t happen as long as we open up huge new gas fields,” Ms Howey said.

“What the Northern Territory government is effectively saying to the rest of Australia is, we expect you to decrease your emissions so we can meet global net zero targets while polluting to a level that has never been seen here in the Northern Territory.”

Both NT Labor and the CLP have a zero emissions target by 2050, and both want to expand the gas industry and frack the Beetaloo. However in the lead up to the election Labor has not made a specific interim 2030 emissions reduction target while the CLP has promised to reduce emissions by 43 per cent by 2030.

However, Energy Producers of Australia NT director David Slama told the ABC the emissions from new gas projects in the NT could be effectively dealt with using Darwin’s planned carbon capture and storage facility, among other techniques.

“Santos and Inpex both have commitments in place. Carbon capture and storage will need to be part of their projects to be successful. They will be critical to offsetting emissions and storing carbon back in the ground,” Mr Slama said.

He said Beetaloo Basin explorers, Tamboran, Empire, and Santos, also had plans to deal with the emissions.

“The plans include piping gas up to Darwin at carbon capture and storage facilities,” Mr Slama said.

“There are also plans to separate the carbon from the methane on site, and then there are better efficiencies and a range of activities planned.”

Dr Howey also expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of carbon capture and storage technology in the Northern Territory, citing a lack of supporting evidence.

“There is no way to carbon-dump our way out of the climate bomb, which is the Beetaloo Basin. No amount of offsetting or climate dumping will remove that as the scenario,” Dr Howey said.